Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia Tech @ Virginia VT @ UVA

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

3-8  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

9-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
John Love None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA TECH
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
VIRGINIA TECH --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Virginia)
Virginia TechVT (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Tech Cover

1.1%

Virginia Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

VT By 1-6 points

0.7%

VT By 7-13 points

0.2%

UVA By 1-6 points

2.2%

UVA By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3
VIRGINIA TECH
35
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
20
VIRGINIA TECH
27
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 VT @ UVA 7 - 27
Nov 30, 2024 UVA @ VT 17 - 37
Nov 25, 2023 VT @ UVA 55 - 17
Nov 27, 2021 VT @ UVA 29 - 24
Dec 12, 2020 UVA @ VT 15 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.8% more
Virginia: 1.6 vs Virginia Tech: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Virginia: 419.8 vs Virginia Tech: 365.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Virginia Tech: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Virginia Tech: 211.2 vs Virginia: 176.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 3.0 7
UVA Score 35.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 19.7 25.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 176.8 / 211.2 197.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 419.8 / 365.1 380.0 / 197.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
VT
UVA
VT
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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