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UNLV

UNLVUNLV

9-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 9:00 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

3-8  |  Home

17
Key Game
Kenji Scanlan
KEY GAME

Kenji Scanlan

#32 | Defensive End
@
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
Player
Kenji Scanlan None-None
Joe McFadden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
0%
📊
NEVADA
100%
UNLV --
NEVADA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (UNLV)
UNLVUNLV (-3.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

76.2%

Nevada Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNLV -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UNLV By 1-6 points

15.3%

UNLV By 7-13 points

19.7%

NEV By 1-6 points

10.7%

NEV By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
UNLV
14
NEVADA
Simulated Score
24
UNLV
27
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UNLV Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nevada Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UNLV (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Nevada (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 29, 2025 UNLV @ NEV 42 - 17
Nov 30, 2024 NEV @ UNLV 14 - 38
Oct 14, 2023 UNLV @ NEV 45 - 27
Nov 26, 2022 NEV @ UNLV 22 - 27
Oct 29, 2021 UNLV @ NEV 20 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +36.7% more
UNLV: 471.9 vs Nevada: 298.8
First Downs (L5) +34.6% more
UNLV: 26.2 vs Nevada: 17.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
UNLV: 0.5 vs Nevada: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.7% more
UNLV: 204.0 vs Nevada: 167.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 24.0 42
NEV Score 14.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 26.2 23.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 167.9 / 204.0 193.0 / 226.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.23 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 298.8 / 471.9 341.0 / 496.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
UNLV
NEV
UNLV
ML
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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