Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ San José St FRES @ SJSU

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

7-4  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Nov 29 • 10:30 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

3-8  |  Home

14
Key Game
RJ Regan
KEY GAME

RJ Regan

#20 | Defensive Back
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
RJ Regan None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
100%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
FRESNO ST --
SAN JOSÉ ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San José State)
Fresno StFRES (-3.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

41.5%

San José St Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

FRES By 1-6 points

15.3%

FRES By 7-13 points

12.9%

SJSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

SJSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14
FRESNO STATE
17
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
24
FRESNO STATE
34
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI San José St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San José St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim San José St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FRES @ SJSU 26 - 10
Nov 29, 2025 FRES @ SJSU 41 - 14
Oct 26, 2024 SJSU @ FRES 10 - 33
Nov 11, 2023 FRES @ SJSU 18 - 42
Oct 15, 2022 SJSU @ FRES 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +153.0% more
San José State: 2.5 vs Fresno State: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +17.7% more
San José State: 19.8 vs Fresno State: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +13.1% more
San José State: 366.9 vs Fresno State: 324.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
San José State: 0.4 vs Fresno State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 14.0 41
SJSU Score 17.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 16.8 14.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 128.0 / 167.6 113.0 / 259.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 366.9 / 324.5 227.0 / 397.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.0 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
FRES
SJSU
FRES
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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