Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Mississippi St MISS @ MSST

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

10-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 12:00 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

5-6  |  Home

19
Key Game
Tony Mitchell
KEY GAME

Tony Mitchell

#44 | Linebacker
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Tony Mitchell None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
0%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
100%
OLE MISS --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Ole Miss)
Ole MissMISS (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

95.7%

Mississippi St Cover

4.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MISS -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-6 points

5.9%

MISS By 7-13 points

12.1%

MSST By 1-6 points

2.5%

MSST By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
41
OLE MISS
17
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
24
OLE MISS
31
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 MISS @ MSST 38 - 19
Nov 29, 2024 MSST @ MISS 14 - 26
Nov 23, 2023 MISS @ MSST 17 - 7
Nov 24, 2022 MSST @ MISS 24 - 22
Nov 25, 2021 MISS @ MSST 31 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.2% more
Ole Miss: 192.8 vs Mississippi State: 122.9
Total Yards (L5) +27.7% more
Ole Miss: 504.7 vs Mississippi State: 364.7
First Downs (L5) +12.3% more
Ole Miss: 26.4 vs Mississippi State: 23.1
Turnovers (L5) +77.2% more
Mississippi State: 1.8 vs Ole Miss: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 41.0 38
MSST Score 17.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 26.4 22.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 122.9 / 192.8 262.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 364.7 / 504.7 440.0 / 545.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
MISS
MSST
MISS
ML
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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