Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ N Illinois KENT @ NIU

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

4-7  |  Road

35
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 12:00 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

3-8  |  Home

31
Key Game
Darian Blachewicz
KEY GAME

Darian Blachewicz

#0 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
Player
Darian Blachewicz None-None
Jake Ference None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
0%
📊
N ILLINOIS
100%
KENT STATE --
N ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Kent State)
Kent StateKENT (-3.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

66.6%

N Illinois Cover

33.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KENT -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

KENT By 1-6 points

16.7%

KENT By 7-13 points

19.0%

NIU By 1-6 points

13.5%

NIU By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
20
KENT STATE
14
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
20
KENT STATE
27
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kent State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim N Illinois Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kent State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim N Illinois (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 KENT @ NIU 35 - 31
Nov 25, 2023 NIU @ KENT 37 - 27
Dec 4, 2021 KENT @ NIU 23 - 41
Nov 3, 2021 NIU @ KENT 47 - 52
Oct 7, 2017 KENT @ NIU 3 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.0% more
Kent State: 0.9 vs Northern Illinois: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +137.4% more
Northern Illinois: 198.9 vs Kent State: 83.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 20.0 35
NIU Score 14.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 15.4 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 198.9 / 83.8 307.0 / 231.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 302.0 / 297.1 334.0 / 438.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
KENT
NIU
KENT
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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