Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ Colorado St AFA @ CSU

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

3-8  |  Road

42
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-9  |  Home

21
Key Game
Isaac Hubert
KEY GAME

Isaac Hubert

#30 | Linebacker
@
CJ Blocker
KEY GAME

CJ Blocker

#17 | Cornerback
Player
Isaac Hubert None-None
CJ Blocker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
0%
📊
COLORADO ST
100%
AIR FORCE --
COLORADO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
17.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Air Force)
Air ForceAFA (-3.5) 0 Colorado StCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

58.5%

Colorado St Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AFA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

AFA By 1-6 points

17.0%

AFA By 7-13 points

17.5%

CSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

CSU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
10
AIR FORCE
7
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
20
AIR FORCE
27
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Air Force Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Air Force (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Colorado St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 17.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 AFA @ CSU 42 - 21
Oct 19, 2024 CSU @ AFA 21 - 13
Oct 28, 2023 AFA @ CSU 30 - 13
Nov 19, 2022 CSU @ AFA 12 - 24
Nov 13, 2021 AFA @ CSU 35 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +69.0% more
Air Force: 218.4 vs Colorado State: 67.7
First Downs (L5) +12.5% more
Air Force: 19.7 vs Colorado State: 17.2
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Air Force: 0.6 vs Colorado State: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Air Force: 0.4 vs Colorado State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 10.0 42
CSU Score 7.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 19.7 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 67.7 / 218.4 12.0 / 316.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.73
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.32 / 0.68
Total Yards 314.3 / 301.3 335.0 / 420.0
Turnovers 2.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
AFA
CSU
AFA
ML
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
TTL
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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