Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ New Mexico SDSU @ UNM

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

9-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 3:30 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

8-3  |  Home

23
Key Game
Krishna Clay
KEY GAME

Krishna Clay

#11 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jalen McIver
KEY GAME

Jalen McIver

#94 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Krishna Clay None-None
Jalen McIver None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO
0%
SAN DIEGO ST --
NEW MEXICO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
20.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (New Mexico)
San Diego StSDSU (-3.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

7.7%

New Mexico Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

SDSU By 1-6 points

4.2%

SDSU By 7-13 points

2.1%

UNM By 1-6 points

8.6%

UNM By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
SAN DIEGO STATE
20
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
17
SAN DIEGO STATE
27
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
C
Sim New Mexico (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 20.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 SDSU @ UNM 17 - 23
Nov 8, 2024 UNM @ SDSU 21 - 16
Nov 18, 2022 SDSU @ UNM 34 - 10
Oct 9, 2021 UNM @ SDSU 7 - 31
Nov 3, 2018 SDSU @ UNM 31 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.0% more
New Mexico: 1.5 vs San Diego State: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +20.1% more
New Mexico: 359.7 vs San Diego State: 299.6
First Downs (L5) +17.4% more
New Mexico: 17.9 vs San Diego State: 15.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
New Mexico: 0.4 vs San Diego State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 0.0 17
UNM Score 20.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 15.3 16.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 156.4 / 195.7 181.0 / 193.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.09 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 359.7 / 299.6 308.0 / 355.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
SDSU
UNM
SDSU
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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