Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Utah State BOIS @ USU

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

7-4  |  Road

25
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

6-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Bo Maile
KEY GAME

Bo Maile

#44 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Bo Maile None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
0%
📊
UTAH STATE
100%
BOISE ST --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Boise State)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

76.2%

Utah State Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BOIS -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

BOIS By 1-6 points

15.3%

BOIS By 7-13 points

19.7%

USU By 1-6 points

10.7%

USU By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27
BOISE STATE
17
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
20
BOISE STATE
34
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Boise St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah State Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boise St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Utah State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 USU @ BOIS 18 - 37
Nov 28, 2025 BOIS @ USU 25 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 USU @ BOIS 30 - 62
Nov 18, 2023 BOIS @ USU 45 - 10
Nov 25, 2022 USU @ BOIS 23 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.8% more
Boise State: 1.2 vs Utah State: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Utah State: 429.5 vs Boise State: 389.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 27.0 25
USU Score 17.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 22.0 22.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 185.1 / 197.8 221.0 / 171.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 429.5 / 389.1 405.0 / 512.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
BOIS
USU
BOIS
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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