INDIANA
INDIANAIU
11-0 | Road
56
PURDUE
PURDUEPUR
2-9 | Home
3
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME
Mitch McCarthy
#44 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Smiley Bradford
#1 | Defensive Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mitch McCarthy | None-None |
| Smiley Bradford | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
0%
PURDUE
100%
INDIANA
--
PURDUE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
IU By 1-6 points
5.9%
IU By 7-13 points
12.1%
PUR By 1-6 points
2.5%
PUR By 7-13 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
31
INDIANA
Purdue
7
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Indiana
24
INDIANA
Purdue
27
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Indiana
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Purdue
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Indiana (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim
Purdue (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 28, 2025
IU @ PUR
56 - 3
Nov 30, 2024
PUR @ IU
0 - 66
Nov 25, 2023
IU @ PUR
31 - 35
Nov 26, 2022
PUR @ IU
30 - 16
Nov 27, 2021
IU @ PUR
7 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5)
+34.0% more
Indiana: 422.8
vs
Purdue: 279.2
First Downs (L5)
+31.3% more
Indiana: 22.4
vs
Purdue: 15.4
Rushing Yards (L5)
+25.8% more
Indiana: 164.4
vs
Purdue: 122.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+22.0% more
Indiana: 0.6
vs
Purdue: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IU Score
31.0
56
PUR Score
7.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
15.4 / 22.4
16.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards
122.1 / 164.4
44.0 / 355.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.6
0.37 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.6
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
279.2 / 422.8
282.0 / 548.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: 33.4
ATS +/-: -3.8
PUR
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: -2.7
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
IU
PUR
IU
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
25%
1-3-1
60%
3-2
50%
2-2-1
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
100%
5-0
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