Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas A&M @ Texas TA&M @ TEX

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

11-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 7:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

8-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
DJ Hicks
KEY GAME

DJ Hicks

#5 | Defensive Tackle
@
Ryan Niblett
KEY GAME

Ryan Niblett

#21 | Running Back
Player
DJ Hicks None-None
Ryan Niblett None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS A&M
0%
📊
TEXAS
100%
TEXAS A&M --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Texas A&M)
Texas A&MTA&M (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas A&M Cover

98.1%

Texas Cover

1.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TA&M -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

TA&M By 1-6 points

3.3%

TA&M By 7-13 points

8.0%

TEX By 1-6 points

1.2%

TEX By 7-13 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
42
TEXAS A&M
13
TEXAS
Simulated Score
31
TEXAS A&M
27
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Sim Texas A&M (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 TA&M @ TEX 17 - 27
Nov 30, 2024 TEX @ TA&M 17 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +78.9% more
Texas A&M: 2.0 vs Texas: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.3% more
Texas A&M: 195.9 vs Texas: 81.7
Total Yards (L5) +17.0% more
Texas A&M: 472.2 vs Texas: 391.8
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Texas A&M: 22.7 vs Texas: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 42.0 17
TEX Score 13.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 22.7 19.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 81.7 / 195.9 218.0 / 157.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 391.8 / 472.2 397.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 2.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TA&M
TEX
TA&M
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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