Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Arizona St ARIZ @ ASU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

8-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Fri, Nov 28 • 9:00 PM ET
Mountain America Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

8-3  |  Home

7
Key Game
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
@
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
Player
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
Kanyon Floyd None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
0%
📊
ARIZONA ST
100%
ARIZONA --
ARIZONA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
17.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Arizona)
ArizonaARIZ (-3.5) 0 Arizona StASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

78.4%

Arizona St Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

14.7%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.7%

ASU By 1-6 points

10.0%

ASU By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14
ARIZONA
3
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
28
ARIZONA
31
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arizona (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim Arizona St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 17.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 28, 2025 ARIZ @ ASU 23 - 7
Nov 30, 2024 ASU @ ARIZ 49 - 7
Nov 25, 2023 ARIZ @ ASU 59 - 23
Nov 25, 2022 ASU @ ARIZ 35 - 38
Nov 27, 2021 ARIZ @ ASU 15 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +142.0% more
Arizona State: 2.2 vs Arizona: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.2% more
Arizona State: 228.3 vs Arizona: 166.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.3% more
Arizona State: 455.0 vs Arizona: 391.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 14.0 23
ASU Score 3.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.0 12.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 228.3 / 166.4 100.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 455.0 / 391.4 214.0 / 374.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
ASU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
ARIZ
ASU
ARIZ
ML
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
TTL
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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