Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ Memphis NAVY @ MEM

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

8-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Thu, Nov 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

8-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Taylor Burton
KEY GAME

Taylor Burton

#90 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Taylor Burton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
100%
📊
MEMPHIS
0%
NAVY --
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
NavyNAVY (-3.5) 0 MemphisMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

23.8%

Memphis Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

NAVY By 1-6 points

10.7%

NAVY By 7-13 points

7.3%

MEM By 1-6 points

15.3%

MEM By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
28
NAVY
38
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
20
NAVY
27
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis Loss
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Memphis Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Memphis (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 27, 2025 NAVY @ MEM 28 - 17
Sep 21, 2024 MEM @ NAVY 44 - 56
Sep 14, 2023 NAVY @ MEM 24 - 28
Sep 10, 2022 MEM @ NAVY 37 - 13
Oct 14, 2021 NAVY @ MEM 17 - 35
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +22.1% more
Memphis: 23.5 vs Navy: 19.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.8% more
Navy: 295.0 vs Memphis: 165.6
Turnovers (L5) +21.6% more
Navy: 1.0 vs Memphis: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 28.0 28
MEM Score 38.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 19.3 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 165.6 / 295.0 116.0 / 200.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 430.8 / 419.9 288.0 / 300.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
NAVY
MEM
NAVY
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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