CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
12-6 | Road
99
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
12-5 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
RAPTORS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CLE By 1-7 points
24.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
13.7%
TOR By 1-7 points
26.2%
TOR By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
105
CLEVELAND
Toronto
106
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
107
CLEVELAND
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+1)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.1% more
Toronto: 11.1
vs
Cleveland: 7.4
Assists (L5)
+19.0% more
Toronto: 31.2
vs
Cleveland: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.7%
Toronto: 81.4%
vs
Cleveland: 69.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Toronto: 43.4%
vs
Cleveland: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
105.0
99
TOR Score
106.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.4 / 35.9
28.0 / 29.0
Assists
31.2 / 26.2
28.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.8
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.5 / 49.0
49.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 69.7
67.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
38.7 / 44.3
51.0 / 37.0
Steals
11.1 / 7.4
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 14.2
16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
55%
57-47
60%
69-46
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
67%
75-37-3
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
68-47
100%
87-0
100%
99-0
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