HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
10-4 | Road
114
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
11-6 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
SUNS
100%
ROCKETS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-50.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +50.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -50.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
0.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
125
HOUSTON
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -50.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u224.5
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u224.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ PHX
119 - 105
Jan 5, 2026
PHX @ HOU
97 - 100
Dec 5, 2025
PHX @ HOU
98 - 117
Nov 24, 2025
HOU @ PHX
114 - 92
Mar 30, 2025
HOU @ PHX
148 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+8.7% more
Houston: 48.2
vs
Phoenix: 44.0
Steals (L5)
+37.1% more
Phoenix: 11.7
vs
Houston: 8.6
Blocks (L5)
+15.0% more
Phoenix: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+11.3% more
Phoenix: 25.3
vs
Houston: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
125.0
114
PHX Score
75.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 39.8
35.0 / 42.0
Assists
25.3 / 22.7
11.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 46.0
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 76.0
68.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 48.2
39.0 / 41.0
Steals
11.7 / 8.6
9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 14.1
21.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
HOU
PHX
HOU
ML
57%
60-45
61%
69-44
51%
45-43
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
62%
70-43
51%
45-43
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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