Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Terrapins @ Bulldogs MD @ GONZ

MARYLAND

TERRAPINSMD

5-2  |  Road

61
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 9:30 PM ET
MGM Grand Garden Arena
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

7-0  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
TERRAPINS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Gonzaga)
TerrapinsMD (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Terrapins Cover

0.1%

Bulldogs Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

MD By 1-7 points

0.1%

MD By 8-14 points

0.0%

GONZ By 1-7 points

0.8%

GONZ By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
47
MARYLAND
78
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
71
MARYLAND
74
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 MD @ GONZ 61 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +91.6% more
Gonzaga: 4.5 vs Maryland: 2.4
Steals (L5) +37.5% more
Gonzaga: 9.1 vs Maryland: 6.6
Assists (L5) +33.7% more
Gonzaga: 16.6 vs Maryland: 12.4
Rebounding (L5) +16.0% more
Gonzaga: 44.8 vs Maryland: 38.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 47.0 61
GONZ Score 78.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 33.7 42.0 / 24.0
Assists 16.6 / 12.4 30.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.9 / 43.1 58.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 77.2 80.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 38.6 39.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.6 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 14.9 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: -0.8
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
MD
GONZ
MD
ML
71% 25-10
70% 23-10
69% 20-9
67% 22-11
ATS
69% 24-11
64% 21-12
69% 20-9
67% 22-11
TTL
57% 20-15
64% 21-12
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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