Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sharks @ Bears LIU @ MOST

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

SHARKSLIU

4-3  |  Road

75
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

3-3  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
SHARKS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Long Island University)
SharksLIU (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

93.3%

Bears Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LIU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIU)

LIU By 1-7 points

15.3%

LIU By 8-14 points

25.3%

MOST By 1-7 points

4.8%

MOST By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
66
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
51
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
62
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
78
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sharks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sharks (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 LIU @ MOST 75 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.6% more
Long Island University: 15.0 vs Missouri State: 11.0
Blocks (L5) +21.7% more
Long Island University: 4.8 vs Missouri State: 3.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
Long Island University: 32.5% vs Missouri State: 24.7%
Assists (L5) +42.6% more
Missouri State: 14.9 vs Long Island University: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIU Score 66.0 75
MOST Score 51.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.7 / 32.5 14.0 / 40.0
Assists 14.9 / 10.4 7.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.8 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 42.6 40.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 62.6 52.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 31.3 27.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.7 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 15.0 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIU
--
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIU
--
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIU
--
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
LIU
MOST
LIU
ML
65% 22-12
60% 21-14
62% 21-13
69% 24-11
ATS
68% 23-11
63% 22-13
62% 21-13
69% 24-11
TTL
44% 15-19
60% 21-14
100% 34-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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