DETROIT
PISTONSDET
14-2 | Road
122
INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-14 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
PACERS
0%
PISTONS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
DET By 1-7 points
0.5%
DET By 8-14 points
0.1%
IND By 1-7 points
3.3%
IND By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
107
DETROIT
Indiana
132
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Detroit
109
DETROIT
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.0
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DET @ IND
133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026
IND @ DET
78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025
DET @ IND
122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025
IND @ DET
112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025
DET @ IND
119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.9%
Indiana: 83.8%
vs
Detroit: 71.9%
Steals (L5)
+32.0% more
Detroit: 10.7
vs
Indiana: 7.2
Assists (L5)
+15.2% more
Detroit: 29.2
vs
Indiana: 24.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.3%
Detroit: 55.5%
vs
Indiana: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
107.0
122
IND Score
132.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 40.0
42.0 / 36.0
Assists
24.8 / 29.2
22.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.7
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 55.5
48.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
83.8 / 71.9
76.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 39.4
30.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.2 / 10.7
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 15.0
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DET
IND
DET
ML
48%
47-50
55%
64-53
54%
45-38
49%
47-49
ATS
59%
57-40
53%
60-54-3
54%
45-38
49%
47-49
TTL
54%
52-45
60%
70-46-1
100%
83-0
100%
96-0
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