DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
5-13 | Road
102
MIAMI
HEATMIA
11-6 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
HEAT
0%
MAVERICKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DAL By 1-7 points
1.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
0.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
6.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
89
DALLAS
Miami
110
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
MIA @ DAL
108 - 118
Nov 24, 2025
DAL @ MIA
102 - 106
Feb 13, 2025
MIA @ DAL
113 - 118
Nov 24, 2024
DAL @ MIA
118 - 123
Apr 10, 2024
DAL @ MIA
111 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+37.9% more
Miami: 31.7
vs
Dallas: 23.0
Steals (L5)
+28.1% more
Miami: 8.6
vs
Dallas: 6.7
Rebounding (L5)
+14.6% more
Miami: 51.6
vs
Dallas: 45.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Miami: 46.7%
vs
Dallas: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
89.0
102
MIA Score
110.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 34.3
19.0 / 30.0
Assists
31.7 / 23.0
22.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.2 / 7.7
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 42.7
45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 78.9
71.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
51.6 / 45.0
53.0 / 50.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.7
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 16.0
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DAL
MIA
DAL
ML
48%
46-50
62%
63-39
59%
48-34
54%
44-37
ATS
51%
49-47
67%
68-34
59%
48-34
54%
44-37
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
60-41-1
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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