Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Grizzlies DEN @ MEM

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

12-4  |  Road

125
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

6-11  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
NUGGETS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
258.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Memphis)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

21.2%

Grizzlies Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DEN By 1-7 points

13.7%

DEN By 8-14 points

4.8%

MEM By 1-7 points

25.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DENVER
133
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
108
DENVER
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+8) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o235.0 Win
Proj Total: 258.0
D
Sim u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 MEM @ DEN 119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026 DEN @ MEM 118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026 MEM @ DEN 116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025 DEN @ MEM 125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025 MEM @ DEN 109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.0% more
Memphis: 7.2 vs Denver: 5.5
Rebounding (L5) +28.0% more
Memphis: 52.8 vs Denver: 41.2
Turnovers (L5) +10.1% more
Denver: 13.9 vs Memphis: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Denver: 38.2% vs Memphis: 29.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 125.0 125
MEM Score 133.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 38.2 34.0 / 51.0
Assists 29.9 / 28.0 33.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 50.7 46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 80.7 87.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 52.8 / 41.2 40.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.5 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 13.9 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DEN
MEM
DEN
ML
57% 59-44
54% 57-48
50% 41-41
55% 47-39
ATS
63% 65-38
63% 65-38-2
50% 41-41
55% 47-39
TTL
70% 71-31-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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