Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ Wildcats UTSA @ ACU

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

3-3  |  Road

50
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 9:00 PM ET
John Hurst Adams Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

4-2  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
ROADRUNNERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (UTSA)
RoadrunnersUTSA (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

100.0%

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTSA -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UTSA By 1-7 points

0.1%

UTSA By 8-14 points

0.5%

ACU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ACU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
89
UTSA
49
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
68
UTSA
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Roadrunners Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Roadrunners (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 UTSA @ ACU 50 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.2% more
UTSA: 42.4 vs Abilene Christian: 37.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
UTSA: 40.4% vs Abilene Christian: 30.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
UTSA: 46.8% vs Abilene Christian: 42.0%
Blocks (L5) +47.1% more
Abilene Christian: 4.5 vs UTSA: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 89.0 50
ACU Score 49.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 40.4 41.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.3 / 14.2 11.0 / 5.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.1 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 46.8 34.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 69.5 / 64.6 71.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 42.4 44.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.4 / 6.9 12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 9.6 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
ACU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
ACU Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
UTSA
ACU
UTSA
ML
67% 22-11
83% 24-5
70% 23-10
48% 14-15
ATS
55% 18-15
72% 21-8
70% 23-10
50% 15-15
TTL
58% 19-14
66% 19-10
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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