GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
5-0 | Road
95
ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
3-1 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
BULLDOGS
--
CRIMSON TIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
GONZ By 1-7 points
0.0%
GONZ By 8-14 points
0.0%
ALA By 1-7 points
0.1%
ALA By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Gonzaga
36
GONZAGA
Alabama
76
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Gonzaga
75
GONZAGA
Alabama
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u178.5
Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
u178.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
GONZ @ ALA
95 - 85
Dec 17, 2022
GONZ @ ALA
100 - 90
Dec 4, 2021
ALA @ GONZ
91 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Alabama: 74.8%
vs
Gonzaga: 72.6%
Steals (L5)
+28.0% more
Gonzaga: 10.2
vs
Alabama: 7.3
Rebounding (L5)
+14.8% more
Gonzaga: 43.2
vs
Alabama: 36.9
Blocks (L5)
+14.2% more
Gonzaga: 5.3
vs
Alabama: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score
36.0
95
ALA Score
76.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 40.3
31.0 / 27.0
Assists
16.5 / 18.4
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 54.8
46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 72.6
61.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 43.2
36.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.3 / 10.2
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 10.0
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
ALA
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
GONZ
ALA
GONZ
ML
63%
22-13
71%
25-10
58%
19-14
69%
20-9
ATS
60%
21-14
69%
24-11
58%
19-14
69%
20-9
TTL
63%
22-13
57%
20-15
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
Calipari Drops Stunner: Nine Arkansas Players Outearn Assistant …
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…