EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
1-4 | Road
71
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
3-2 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
100%
NORSE
0%
COLONELS
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NKU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
EKU By 1-7 points
1.7%
EKU By 8-14 points
0.3%
NKU By 1-7 points
8.0%
NKU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Eastern Kentucky
57
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Northern Kentucky
77
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Eastern Kentucky
71
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Northern Kentucky
76
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Norse
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Norse (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
EKU @ NKU
71 - 82
Dec 17, 2023
NKU @ EKU
85 - 75
Dec 14, 2022
EKU @ NKU
61 - 64
Dec 18, 2021
NKU @ EKU
68 - 81
Dec 8, 2019
EKU @ NKU
57 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+65.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 12.1
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+50.1% more
Northern Kentucky: 19.2
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Northern Kentucky: 49.8%
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 41.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
Northern Kentucky: 40.8%
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EKU Score
57.0
71
NKU Score
77.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 33.4
33.0 / 27.0
Assists
19.2 / 12.8
12.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 41.1
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
63.6 / 72.8
86.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 35.7
34.0 / 35.0
Steals
12.1 / 7.3
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 13.1
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
NKU
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
EKU
NKU
EKU
ML
53%
18-16
44%
14-18
65%
22-12
69%
22-10
ATS
56%
19-15
56%
18-14
65%
22-12
69%
22-10
TTL
68%
23-11
53%
17-15
100%
34-0
100%
32-0