Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Privateers @ Bulldogs UNO @ MSST

NEW ORLEANS

PRIVATEERSUNO

2-4  |  Road

78
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

3-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
PRIVATEERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
PRIVATEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Mississippi State)
PrivateersUNO (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Privateers Cover

5.5%

Bulldogs Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

UNO By 1-7 points

4.0%

UNO By 8-14 points

0.8%

MSST By 1-7 points

13.7%

MSST By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
46
NEW ORLEANS
62
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
61
NEW ORLEANS
82
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 UNO @ MSST 78 - 81
Nov 17, 2019 UNO @ MSST 59 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +61.6% more
Mississippi State: 4.4 vs New Orleans: 2.7
Assists (L5) +15.8% more
Mississippi State: 13.6 vs New Orleans: 11.8
Steals (L5) +11.6% more
Mississippi State: 6.1 vs New Orleans: 5.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Mississippi State: 45.4% vs New Orleans: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNO Score 46.0 78
MSST Score 62.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 33.1 32.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.6 / 11.8 15.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 42.7 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 69.5 52.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 38.0 42.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.4 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 15.6 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNO Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +3.4
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNO Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +3.4
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNO
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +2.0
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
UNO
MSST
UNO
ML
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
57% 17-13
ATS
56% 18-14
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
57% 17-13
TTL
59% 19-13
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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