Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Aggies UL @ UCD

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

1-5  |  Road

56
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 9:00 PM ET
University Credit Union Center
View Odds Details →

UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

4-2  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UC Davis)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 AggiesUCD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

46.0%

Aggies Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)

UL By 1-7 points

24.3%

UL By 8-14 points

13.7%

UCD By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCD By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
LOUISIANA
39
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
70
LOUISIANA
73
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u136.0 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u136.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 UL @ UCD 56 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +158.5% more
UC Davis: 15.2 vs Louisiana: 5.9
Blocks (L5) +66.9% more
UC Davis: 3.0 vs Louisiana: 1.8
Steals (L5) +54.0% more
UC Davis: 7.2 vs Louisiana: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5) +13.3%
UC Davis: 83.0% vs Louisiana: 69.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 38.0 56
UCD Score 39.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 21.6 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.2 / 5.9 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 36.3 55.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 83.0 / 69.7 69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 29.8 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.2 / 4.7 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 14.6 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
UL
UCD
UL
ML
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
64% 21-12
63% 19-11
ATS
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
64% 21-12
63% 19-11
TTL
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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