USC
TROJANSUSC
5-0 | Road
70
BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
4-2 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
BRONCOS
0%
TROJANS
--
BRONCOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boise State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)
USC By 1-7 points
21.6%
USC By 8-14 points
10.7%
BOIS By 1-7 points
27.2%
BOIS By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
73
USC
Boise State
76
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
USC
68
USC
Boise State
75
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncos
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Broncos (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
USC @ BOIS
70 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Boise State: 76.5%
vs
USC: 70.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Boise State: 37.8%
vs
USC: 33.6%
Blocks (L5)
+85.3% more
USC: 8.4
vs
Boise State: 1.2
Steals (L5)
+33.2% more
USC: 7.4
vs
Boise State: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
73.0
70
BOIS Score
76.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 33.6
20.0 / 48.0
Assists
14.1 / 20.9
7.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.2 / 8.4
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 47.5
41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 70.4
91.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 40.6
36.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.9 / 7.4
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 10.9
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
BOIS
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
USC
BOIS
USC
ML
50%
16-16
52%
16-15
61%
19-12
58%
18-13
ATS
50%
16-16
68%
21-10
61%
19-12
58%
18-13
TTL
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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