Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Pilots STMN @ PORT

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

4-2  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 4:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

3-1  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
📊
PILOTS
100%
TOMMIES --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

61.8%

Pilots Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around STMN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

STMN By 1-7 points

27.2%

STMN By 8-14 points

20.1%

PORT By 1-7 points

21.6%

PORT By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
64
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
70
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
75
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tommies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tommies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 STMN @ PORT 76 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.0 vs Portland: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 80.7% vs Portland: 71.0%
Assists (L5) +36.6% more
Portland: 19.1 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 14.0
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Portland: 13.9 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 67.0 76
PORT Score 64.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 30.1 32.0 / 32.0
Assists 19.1 / 14.0 21.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.4 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 46.3 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 80.7 57.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 31.1 39.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.0 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 10.4 20.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
STMN
PORT
STMN
ML
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
82% 27-6
64% 21-12
ATS
67% 22-11
70% 23-10
82% 28-6
64% 21-12
TTL
55% 18-15
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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