Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warhawks @ Buccaneers ULM @ ETSU

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

1-4  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 4:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

4-1  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
WARHAWKS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (East Tennessee State)
WarhawksULM (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warhawks Cover

18.4%

Buccaneers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

ULM By 1-7 points

12.2%

ULM By 8-14 points

4.0%

ETSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

ETSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
65
UL MONROE
74
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
67
UL MONROE
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 ULM @ ETSU 55 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +91.9% more
East Tennessee State: 11.1 vs UL Monroe: 5.8
Blocks (L5) +31.2% more
East Tennessee State: 3.1 vs UL Monroe: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
East Tennessee State: 46.8% vs UL Monroe: 42.6%
Turnovers (L5) +18.2% more
UL Monroe: 12.4 vs East Tennessee State: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 65.0 55
ETSU Score 74.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.9 / 32.3 46.0 / 22.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.6 24.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.4 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 42.6 59.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 72.2 80.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 35.6 42.0 / 25.0
Steals 11.1 / 5.8 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 12.4 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
ULM
ETSU
ULM
ML
42% 14-19
50% 16-16
70% 23-10
70% 21-9
ATS
58% 19-14
78% 25-7
70% 23-10
70% 21-9
TTL
45% 15-18
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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