Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lakers @ Thundering Herd MERC @ MRSH

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

3-3  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

4-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
LAKERS --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Marshall)
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

13.6%

Thundering Herd Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MERC By 1-7 points

9.3%

MERC By 8-14 points

2.7%

MRSH By 1-7 points

21.6%

MRSH By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
81
MERCYHURST
92
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
65
MERCYHURST
78
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 MERC @ MRSH 60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +63.6% more
Marshall: 5.7 vs Mercyhurst: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +19.2% more
Marshall: 37.9 vs Mercyhurst: 31.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Marshall: 13.5 vs Mercyhurst: 11.5
Assists (L5) +15.4% more
Marshall: 19.6 vs Mercyhurst: 17.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 81.0 60
MRSH Score 92.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 34.9 41.0 / 19.0
Assists 19.6 / 17.0 14.0 / 6.0
Blocks 5.7 / 3.5 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 48.5 42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 67.3 81.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 31.8 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.9 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 11.5 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
MERC
MRSH
MERC
ML
70% 21-9
59% 20-14
62% 18-11
79% 26-7
ATS
70% 21-9
62% 21-13
62% 18-11
79% 26-7
TTL
50% 15-15
53% 18-16
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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