Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Wolverines SDSU @ MICH

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

2-1  |  Road

54
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 10:30 PM ET
Michelob ULTRA Arena
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

4-0  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
📊
WOLVERINES
0%
AZTECS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Michigan)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

24.2%

Wolverines Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

SDSU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

5.8%

MICH By 1-7 points

26.2%

MICH By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
60
SAN DIEGO STATE
67
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
SAN DIEGO STATE
72
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolverines Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 SDSU @ MICH 54 - 94
Dec 4, 2021 SDSU @ MICH 58 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +25.6% more
Michigan: 45.0 vs San Diego State: 35.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Michigan: 76.2% vs San Diego State: 69.3%
Steals (L5) +39.7% more
San Diego State: 9.1 vs Michigan: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
San Diego State: 37.5% vs Michigan: 27.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 60.0 54
MICH Score 67.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 37.5 33.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.5 / 16.0 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.4 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 48.0 50.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 69.3 68.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 45.0 / 35.9 49.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.5 / 9.1 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.7 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
SDSU
MICH
SDSU
ML
78% 31-9
62% 20-12
63% 24-14
72% 23-9
ATS
78% 31-9
69% 22-10
63% 24-14
72% 23-9
TTL
57% 23-17
75% 24-8
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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