MIAMI
HEATMIA
10-6 | Road
127
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
9-6 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
76ERS
100%
HEAT
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
PHI By 1-7 points
8.0%
PHI By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
122
MIAMI
Philadelphia
110
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Philadelphia
112
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u241.0
Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHI @ MIA
109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026
MIA @ PHI
117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025
MIA @ PHI
127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025
PHI @ MIA
105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025
MIA @ PHI
118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Miami: 31.5
vs
Philadelphia: 25.7
Steals (L5)
+9.9% more
Miami: 9.4
vs
Philadelphia: 8.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Miami: 38.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 35.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+16.6% more
Philadelphia: 14.8
vs
Miami: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
122.0
127
PHI Score
110.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 38.0
34.0 / 34.0
Assists
25.7 / 31.5
28.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.3
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 45.6
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 78.7
79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 48.4
47.0 / 58.0
Steals
8.4 / 9.4
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 12.7
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
63%
69-40
48%
46-50
48%
45-48
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
71-38
51%
49-47
48%
45-48
59%
48-34
TTL
55%
60-49
59%
57-39
100%
93-0
100%
82-0
Contextual Game News
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
Colin Cowherd: LeBron James' Arthritis and Sciatica Made 76ers t…