CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
4-12 | Road
110
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
10-7 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
HAWKS
0%
HORNETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CHA By 1-7 points
13.7%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.8%
ATL By 1-7 points
25.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
96
CHARLOTTE
Atlanta
104
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.5% more
Atlanta: 5.9
vs
Charlotte: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+24.8% more
Atlanta: 30.6
vs
Charlotte: 24.5
Steals (L5)
+24.3% more
Atlanta: 8.5
vs
Charlotte: 6.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Atlanta: 41.0%
vs
Charlotte: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
96.0
110
ATL Score
104.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 31.4
35.0 / 32.0
Assists
30.6 / 24.5
32.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.9 / 3.7
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 44.4
49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 84.6
75.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 43.0
37.0 / 43.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.8
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 13.5
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHA
ATL
CHA
ML
50%
52-52
61%
60-39
55%
48-40
48%
40-44
ATS
53%
55-48-1
60%
59-40
55%
48-40
48%
40-44
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
57-42
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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