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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

7-9  |  Road

95
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 7:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

16-1  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

6.7%

Thunder Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

POR By 1-7 points

4.8%

POR By 8-14 points

1.1%

OKC By 1-7 points

15.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
110
PORTLAND
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
112
PORTLAND
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.4% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs Portland: 7.8
Blocks (L5) +22.5% more
Oklahoma City: 5.9 vs Portland: 4.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.2%
Oklahoma City: 44.0% vs Portland: 31.8%
Assists (L5) +8.7% more
Oklahoma City: 28.9 vs Portland: 26.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 110.0 95
OKC Score 125.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.0 / 31.8 42.0 / 26.0
Assists 28.9 / 26.6 33.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.8 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 45.0 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 82.1 / 77.4 74.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 51.1 49.0 / 45.0
Steals 11.9 / 7.8 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 17.7 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
POR
OKC
POR
ML
70% 80-34
53% 56-49
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
ATS
73% 83-30-1
62% 65-39-1
48% 46-49
55% 49-40
TTL
67% 76-38
56% 58-46-1
100% 95-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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