Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Lions LONG @ COLU

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

3-3  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 2:00 PM ET
Levien Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

COLUMBIA

LIONSCOLU

5-1  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
LANCERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
COLUMBIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Columbia)
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 LionsCOLU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

18.4%

Lions Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLU)

LONG By 1-7 points

12.2%

LONG By 8-14 points

4.0%

COLU By 1-7 points

24.3%

COLU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
83
LONGWOOD
92
COLUMBIA
Simulated Score
72
LONGWOOD
65
COLUMBIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Lancers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 LONG @ COLU 70 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Columbia: 42.8 vs Longwood: 37.4
Assists (L5) +14.2% more
Columbia: 14.7 vs Longwood: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
Columbia: 35.4% vs Longwood: 24.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Columbia: 46.3% vs Longwood: 41.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 83.0 70
COLU Score 92.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 24.9 50.0 / 47.0
Assists 14.7 / 12.9 25.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.1 6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 41.6 52.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 81.9 75.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 37.4 39.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.6 / 11.8 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.8 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
COLU Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
COLU Advantage
13-13-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLU
LONG
COLU
LONG
ML
44% 12-15
65% 20-11
56% 15-12
68% 21-10
ATS
59% 16-11
68% 21-10
56% 15-12
68% 21-10
TTL
74% 20-7
65% 20-11
100% 27-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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