Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Musketeers WVU @ XAV

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

5-1  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 3:30 PM ET
TD Arena
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

3-3  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
MUSKETEERS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Xavier)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

0.0%

Musketeers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around XAV -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

WVU By 1-7 points

0.0%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.0%

XAV By 1-7 points

0.1%

XAV By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
36
WEST VIRGINIA
76
XAVIER
Simulated Score
72
WEST VIRGINIA
75
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Musketeers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 WVU @ XAV 68 - 78
Dec 3, 2022 WVU @ XAV 74 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Xavier: 16.0 vs West Virginia: 12.7
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Xavier: 8.5 vs West Virginia: 7.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Xavier: 37.5 vs West Virginia: 34.4
Blocks (L5) +31.1% more
West Virginia: 3.2 vs Xavier: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 36.0 68
XAV Score 76.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 37.3 64.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.0 / 12.7 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.2 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 43.7 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 67.0 100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 34.4 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.5 / 7.5 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.3 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
WVU
XAV
WVU
ML
58% 19-14
63% 22-13
72% 23-9
76% 26-8
ATS
73% 24-9
60% 21-14
72% 23-9
76% 26-8
TTL
39% 13-20
40% 14-21
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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