Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Penguins @ Spartans YSU @ UNCG

YOUNGSTOWN STATE

PENGUINSYSU

2-4  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 5:30 PM ET
John Hurst Adams Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

1-5  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
PENGUINS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
PenguinsYSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

46.0%

Spartans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

YSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

YSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNCG By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNCG By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
72
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
73
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
72
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
75
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 YSU @ UNCG 62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
UNC Greensboro: 32.3 vs Youngstown State: 28.7
Blocks (L5) +56.7% more
Youngstown State: 3.7 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.6
Steals (L5) +39.8% more
Youngstown State: 6.5 vs UNC Greensboro: 3.9
Turnovers (L5) +32.9% more
Youngstown State: 14.6 vs UNC Greensboro: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
YSU Score 72.0 62
UNCG Score 73.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 36.9 28.0 / 27.0
Assists 10.8 / 14.0 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.6 / 3.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 46.4 44.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 65.2 / 68.7 68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 28.7 41.0 / 38.0
Steals 3.9 / 6.5 7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 14.6 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1 (35.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.3
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +0.2
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
YSU
UNCG
YSU
ML
38% 13-21
57% 17-13
71% 24-10
67% 20-10
ATS
44% 15-19
47% 14-16
71% 24-10
67% 20-10
TTL
76% 26-8
60% 18-12
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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