Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Racers @ Blue Raiders MUR @ MTSU

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

4-1  |  Road

87
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 7:30 PM ET
John Gray Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

3-1  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
100%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
RACERS --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

21.2%

Blue Raiders Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MUR By 1-7 points

13.7%

MUR By 8-14 points

4.8%

MTSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

MTSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
MURRAY STATE
87
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 MUR @ MTSU 87 - 90
Nov 16, 2024 MUR @ MTSU 88 - 67
Dec 30, 2023 MTSU @ MUR 54 - 75
Dec 21, 2022 MUR @ MTSU 67 - 83
Dec 4, 2021 MTSU @ MUR 87 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.3% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.1 vs Murray State: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +15.5% more
Middle Tennessee: 40.7 vs Murray State: 35.3
Assists (L5) +15.4% more
Murray State: 16.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 13.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.4%
Murray State: 42.7% vs Middle Tennessee: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 79.0 87
MTSU Score 87.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 42.7 38.0 / 32.0
Assists 13.9 / 16.4 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 50.0 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 76.7 56.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 35.3 46.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.5 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 12.4 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
MTSU Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
MUR
MTSU
MUR
ML
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
ATS
75% 24-8
52% 17-16
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
TTL
53% 17-15
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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