Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Wildcats USU @ DAV

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

6-0  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 9:00 PM ET
TD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

5-1  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
AGGIES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
89.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Davidson)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsDAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

18.4%

Wildcats Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAV -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)

USU By 1-7 points

12.2%

USU By 8-14 points

4.0%

DAV By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAV By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
40
UTAH STATE
49
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
70
UTAH STATE
73
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 89.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 USU @ DAV 94 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.8% more
Davidson: 4.1 vs Utah State: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.2%
Davidson: 74.4% vs Utah State: 69.2%
Steals (L5) +35.0% more
Utah State: 10.1 vs Davidson: 6.5
Assists (L5) +31.8% more
Utah State: 18.8 vs Davidson: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 40.0 94
DAV Score 49.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 36.4 27.0 / 46.0
Assists 12.8 / 18.8 10.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 52.0 40.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 69.2 65.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 38.1 29.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.5 / 10.1 7.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.9 19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
DAV
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
USU
DAV
USU
ML
64% 21-12
49% 17-18
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
ATS
48% 16-17
74% 26-9
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
TTL
52% 17-16
51% 18-17
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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