Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Broncos MSM @ WMU

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

1-4  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 3:00 PM ET
University Arena (MI)
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

2-4  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Western Michigan)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 BroncosWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

38.2%

Broncos Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WMU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

MSM By 1-7 points

21.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

10.7%

WMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

WMU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
73
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 MSM @ WMU 60 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +73.4% more
Western Michigan: 5.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.9
Free Throw % (L5) +17.8%
Western Michigan: 74.7% vs Mount St. Mary's: 56.9%
Assists (L5) +17.7% more
Mount St. Mary's: 15.4 vs Western Michigan: 12.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.9% more
Mount St. Mary's: 17.5 vs Western Michigan: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 70.0 60
WMU Score 73.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 38.0 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.7 / 15.4 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.4 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 44.0 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 56.9 86.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 36.6 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.0 / 2.9 10.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 17.5 6.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
WMU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
MSM
WMU
MSM
ML
60% 18-12
53% 17-15
70% 21-9
61% 19-12
ATS
67% 20-10
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
61% 19-12
TTL
57% 17-13
81% 26-6
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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