ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
4-3 | Road
80
CAL STATE FULLERTON
TITANSCSUF
2-4 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
0%
TITANS
100%
TOMMIES
--
TITANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSUF +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUF)
STMN By 1-7 points
27.2%
STMN By 8-14 points
23.0%
CSUF By 1-7 points
18.6%
CSUF By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
88
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Cal State Fullerton
83
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Cal State Fullerton
72
CAL STATE FULLERTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tommies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Titans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Titans (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Titans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o162.5
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
STMN @ CSUF
80 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 9.0
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 74.0%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 61.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 49.0%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 42.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 33.2%
vs
Cal State Fullerton: 30.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
88.0
80
CSUF Score
83.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 33.2
31.0 / 24.0
Assists
16.1 / 14.0
19.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.0 / 2.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 49.0
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
61.6 / 74.0
92.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 29.1
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.3 / 9.0
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 11.1
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUF
18-16-0
(52.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
CSUF
Advantage
19-11-2
(63.3%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
CSUF
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUF
STMN
CSUF
STMN
ML
68%
23-11
64%
21-12
76%
26-8
64%
21-12
ATS
68%
23-11
70%
23-10
76%
26-8
64%
21-12
TTL
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
