Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Nuggets SAC @ DEN

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

3-13  |  Road

128
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

12-3  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
KINGS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

98.9%

Nuggets Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

4.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

13.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

0.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
112
SACRAMENTO
89
DENVER
Simulated Score
123
SACRAMENTO
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (-11) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Kings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 136 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 SAC @ DEN 128 - 123
Nov 11, 2025 DEN @ SAC 122 - 108
Nov 3, 2025 SAC @ DEN 124 - 130
Apr 9, 2025 DEN @ SAC 124 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
Sacramento: 16.0 vs Denver: 14.3
Blocks (L5) +49.8% more
Denver: 4.4 vs Sacramento: 3.0
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
Denver: 28.0 vs Sacramento: 24.4
Rebounding (L5) +13.6% more
Denver: 42.8 vs Sacramento: 37.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 112.0 128
DEN Score 89.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 33.6 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 28.0 / 24.4 28.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.6 / 45.1 49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 69.8 83.0 / 96.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 37.7 38.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.7 / 8.2 1.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 16.0 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SAC
DEN
SAC
ML
54% 57-48
55% 55-45
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38-2
54% 52-45-3
55% 47-39
61% 50-32
TTL
54% 56-48-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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