Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Pilots UNCO @ PORT

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

3-0  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Chiles Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

3-1  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
PILOTS
0%
BEARS --
PILOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Portland)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 PilotsPORT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Pilots Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PORT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

UNCO By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNCO By 8-14 points

13.7%

PORT By 1-7 points

26.2%

PORT By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
59
NORTHERN COLORADO
60
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
70
NORTHERN COLORADO
75
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pilots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pilots Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pilots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pilots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 UNCO @ PORT 86 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.4% more
Portland: 7.1 vs Northern Colorado: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +18.2% more
Portland: 3.6 vs Northern Colorado: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Northern Colorado: 15.4 vs Portland: 13.9
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Northern Colorado: 39.0 vs Portland: 35.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 59.0 86
PORT Score 60.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 36.4 17.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.7 / 17.3 22.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.0 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 48.5 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 77.0 75.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 39.0 41.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.1 / 5.2 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 15.4 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
PORT
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
UNCO
PORT
UNCO
ML
48% 16-17
50% 16-16
82% 27-6
66% 21-11
ATS
67% 22-11
53% 17-15
82% 28-6
66% 21-11
TTL
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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