Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Mavericks MEM @ DAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

5-11  |  Road

102
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

5-12  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

98.6%

Mavericks Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

5.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

15.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

1.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
111
MEMPHIS
89
DALLAS
Simulated Score
109
MEMPHIS
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.7% more
Memphis: 31.8 vs Dallas: 24.9
Blocks (L5) +86.2% more
Dallas: 7.0 vs Memphis: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +54.8% more
Dallas: 18.9 vs Memphis: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Dallas: 34.9% vs Memphis: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 111.0 102
DAL Score 89.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 30.8 33.0 / 26.0
Assists 24.9 / 31.8 19.0 / 26.0
Blocks 7.0 / 3.8 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 43.5 38.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 71.7 88.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 47.0 / 48.7 41.0 / 61.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.3 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 18.9 / 12.2 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MEM
DAL
MEM
ML
62% 63-39
57% 59-44
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
ATS
67% 68-34
63% 65-38
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 60-41-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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