Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Flyers NCCU @ DAY

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

2-4  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 2:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

4-1  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
EAGLES --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Dayton)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

0.5%

Flyers Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

NCCU By 1-7 points

0.4%

NCCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

DAY By 1-7 points

2.7%

DAY By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
82
DAYTON
Simulated Score
62
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
78
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 NCCU @ DAY 55 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.5% more
Dayton: 4.4 vs North Carolina Central: 2.7
Turnovers (L5) +28.9% more
Dayton: 15.6 vs North Carolina Central: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Dayton: 48.8% vs North Carolina Central: 41.4%
Assists (L5) +23.5% more
North Carolina Central: 20.1 vs Dayton: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 56.0 55
DAY Score 82.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 36.4 28.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.4 / 20.1 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.4 / 2.7 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 41.4 43.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 74.1 58.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 36.5 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.7 / 9.8 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 12.1 7.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
NCCU
DAY
NCCU
ML
65% 24-13
65% 20-11
64% 23-13
81% 22-5
ATS
68% 25-12
71% 22-9
64% 23-13
81% 22-5
TTL
57% 21-16
55% 17-14
100% 36-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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