MERCER
BEARSMER
3-2 | Road
95
EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
1-4 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
COLONELS
100%
BEARS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Mercer)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MER -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)
MER By 1-7 points
18.6%
MER By 8-14 points
26.8%
EKU By 1-7 points
6.8%
EKU By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercer
74
MERCER
Eastern Kentucky
61
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Mercer
75
MERCER
Eastern Kentucky
78
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Colonels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
MER @ EKU
95 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+17.8% more
Mercer: 8.5
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+12.1% more
Mercer: 12.8
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Mercer: 44.1%
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 41.1%
Blocks (L5)
+18.2% more
Eastern Kentucky: 4.4
vs
Mercer: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MER Score
74.0
95
EKU Score
61.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 29.6
38.0 / 57.0
Assists
11.2 / 12.8
16.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 44.1
41.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
69.2 / 67.5
80.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 36.8
34.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.5
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.5
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
Advantage
19-10-0
(65.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +1.1
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
MER
EKU
MER
ML
44%
14-18
55%
17-14
69%
22-10
71%
22-9
ATS
56%
18-14
58%
18-13
69%
22-10
71%
22-9
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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