Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Wildcats UTA @ WEB

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

4-1  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Events Center
View Odds Details →

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

2-3  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
MAVERICKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

69.1%

Wildcats Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

27.2%

UTA By 8-14 points

23.0%

WEB By 1-7 points

18.6%

WEB By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
UT ARLINGTON
70
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
71
UT ARLINGTON
76
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 UTA @ WEB 74 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.5% more
UT Arlington: 3.7 vs Weber State: 0.8
Turnovers (L5) +25.3% more
UT Arlington: 16.4 vs Weber State: 12.2
Steals (L5) +16.7% more
UT Arlington: 8.9 vs Weber State: 7.4
Assists (L5) +8.8% more
UT Arlington: 16.4 vs Weber State: 14.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 75.0 74
WEB Score 70.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 35.7 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.9 / 16.4 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 0.8 / 3.7 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 47.9 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 63.4 88.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 39.0 29.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.9 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 16.4 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
WEB
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
UTA
WEB
UTA
ML
73% 22-8
50% 16-16
73% 22-8
62% 20-12
ATS
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
74% 23-8
62% 20-12
TTL
83% 25-5
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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