Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Sycamores BALL @ INST

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

2-3  |  Road

52
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

4-2  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
SYCAMORES
0%
CARDINALS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Indiana State)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.3%

Sycamores Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around INST -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

BALL By 1-7 points

0.2%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.0%

INST By 1-7 points

1.7%

INST By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
BALL STATE
102
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
72
BALL STATE
78
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sycamores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sycamores (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 BALL @ INST 52 - 70
Nov 16, 2024 INST @ BALL 94 - 84
Dec 16, 2023 INST @ BALL 83 - 72
Nov 12, 2022 BALL @ INST 71 - 83
Nov 27, 2021 INST @ BALL 75 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +33.6% more
Indiana State: 37.9 vs Ball State: 28.4
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
Indiana State: 15.5 vs Ball State: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Indiana State: 70.5% vs Ball State: 65.0%
Steals (L5) +16.6% more
Ball State: 8.4 vs Indiana State: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 74.0 52
INST Score 102.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 32.4 27.0 / 20.0
Assists 15.5 / 12.4 17.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.0 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 39.5 / 43.5 47.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 65.0 100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 28.4 40.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.0 / 8.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.4 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
BALL
INST
BALL
ML
66% 21-11
43% 13-17
53% 17-15
62% 18-11
ATS
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
53% 17-15
62% 18-11
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 15-15
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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