Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gauchos @ Wolf Pack UCSB @ NEV

UC SANTA BARBARA

GAUCHOSUCSB

3-1  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 5:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

3-2  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
0%
📊
WOLF PACK
100%
GAUCHOS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UC Santa Barbara)
GauchosUCSB (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gauchos Cover

96.4%

Wolf Pack Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSB -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)

UCSB By 1-7 points

10.7%

UCSB By 8-14 points

21.6%

NEV By 1-7 points

2.7%

NEV By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
88
UC SANTA BARBARA
70
NEVADA
Simulated Score
67
UC SANTA BARBARA
78
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gauchos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gauchos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 UCSB @ NEV 64 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
UC Santa Barbara: 44.0% vs Nevada: 41.3%
Blocks (L5) +31.4% more
Nevada: 3.7 vs UC Santa Barbara: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +31.1% more
Nevada: 11.5 vs UC Santa Barbara: 8.8
Steals (L5) +12.1% more
Nevada: 7.2 vs UC Santa Barbara: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score 88.0 64
NEV Score 70.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 36.6 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.8 / 15.5 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 44.0 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 73.2 87.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 37.7 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.4 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 8.8 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.1
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
UCSB
NEV
UCSB
ML
62% 23-14
59% 19-13
73% 27-10
72% 23-9
ATS
73% 27-10
62% 20-12
73% 27-10
72% 23-9
TTL
49% 18-19
47% 15-17
100% 37-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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