Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vaqueros @ Bears RGV @ MOST

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

2-2  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 5:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

2-2  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
VAQUEROS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Missouri State)
VaquerosRGV (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vaqueros Cover

42.1%

Bears Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

RGV By 1-7 points

23.0%

RGV By 8-14 points

12.2%

MOST By 1-7 points

26.8%

MOST By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
76
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
65
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
78
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 RGV @ MOST 67 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.5% more
Missouri State: 4.6 vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +14.6% more
Missouri State: 13.5 vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 11.8
Assists (L5) +24.8% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 19.7 vs Missouri State: 14.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +19.9%
UT Rio Grande Valley: 43.0% vs Missouri State: 23.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RGV Score 74.0 67
MOST Score 76.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.1 / 43.0 28.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.8 / 19.7 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.4 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 49.6 42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 70.8 73.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 36.8 26.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.5 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 11.8 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
MOST
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
RGV
MOST
RGV
ML
65% 22-12
53% 16-14
62% 21-13
54% 15-13
ATS
68% 23-11
53% 16-14
62% 21-13
54% 15-13
TTL
44% 15-19
60% 18-12
100% 34-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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