TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
11-7-2 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
11-8-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
John Carlson
#74 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 1.55 | 0.900 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.55
--
Save %
0.900
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
CAPITALS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TB By 1 goal
0.9%
TB By 2-3 goals
0.3%
WSH By 1 goal
6.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
1
TAMPA BAY
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
WSH @ TB
1 - 3
Nov 22, 2025
TB @ WSH
5 - 3
Nov 8, 2025
WSH @ TB
2 - 3
Oct 14, 2025
TB @ WSH
2 - 3
Mar 1, 2025
TB @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+59.2% more
Washington: 5.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+30.3% more
Washington: 17.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 13.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.1%
Washington: 47.1%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.1%
Hits (L5)
+18.1% more
Tampa Bay: 22.2
vs
Washington: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
1.0
5
WSH Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 13.4
13.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
47.1 / 44.1
46.3 / 53.7
Hits
18.2 / 22.2
22.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
18.1 / 18.8
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 30.2
32.0 / 16.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 3.4
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TB
WSH
TB
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
ATS
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
TTL
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
Contextual Game News
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