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DALLAS

STARSDAL

13-5-3  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 10:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

6-13-3  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Devin Cooley
GOALTENDER

Devin Cooley

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 1.86 0.939 --
Devin Cooley None-None 1.85 0.933 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.86 GAA Ldr 1.85
0.939 Ldr Save % 0.933
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
FLAMES
0%
STARS --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Calgary)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

15.9%

Flames Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

DAL By 1 goal

6.6%

DAL By 2-3 goals

3.7%

CGY By 1 goal

17.5%

CGY By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DALLAS
4
CALGARY
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
3
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 CGY @ DAL 3 - 4
Mar 3, 2026 DAL @ CGY 6 - 1
Nov 22, 2025 DAL @ CGY 2 - 3
Mar 27, 2025 DAL @ CGY 5 - 2
Mar 6, 2025 CGY @ DAL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +28.2% more
Calgary: 31.7 vs Dallas: 24.7
Hits (L5) +23.0% more
Calgary: 24.0 vs Dallas: 19.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +14.6% more
Calgary: 15.5 vs Dallas: 13.5
Takeaways (L5) +8.6% more
Calgary: 4.2 vs Dallas: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 2.0 2
CGY Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.5 / 13.5 15.0 / 15.0
Faceoff % 54.0 / 51.2 46.2 / 53.8
Hits 24.0 / 19.5 17.0 / 15.0
Power Play % 10.8 / 17.3 33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 31.7 / 24.7 33.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 4.2 / 3.8 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
DAL
CGY
DAL
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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